Forecasting by using the past and present information to identify the expected future conditions. Projections for the future of course there are elements of inaccuracy. Usually people who are experienced can predict accurately enough about the benefit of the organization for the long-term plan.
Approaches for predicting the human resource can be started from the best estimation of the managers to the complex computer simulation. Simple assumption might be adequate for a certain distance, but the complex distance will be required for other things. The period of forecasting. The forecasting of human resource must be done through three stages: short-term planning, medium and long. Forecasting on the needs of human resource (demand).
Currently, the main emphasis of the human resource forecasting is predicting the needs of human resource for the organization or the demand of human resource. The demand forecasting can be like a subjective assessment or mathematical. Methods of demand forecasting, namely:
The assessment methods consist of:
a. Estimation can be top down or bottom up, but basically the one who has interest will be asking “How many people will you need for the next year?“
b. Rules of thumb entrust the general guidelines that are applied on specific situations within the organization. Example; guideline of “one operations managers per five reporting supervisors” assist and predict the number of supervisors that are needed in a division. However, this matter is important to adjust the guidelines to determine the needs of departments which are vary widely.